Chine prête à dominer IA et fabrication selon Elon Musk

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has recently stated that China's energy resources and innovative drive will enable it to dominate the fields of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. He emphasizes that the challenges posed by computing power and energy supply for AI development will be significant, arguing that without revolutionary innovations in the United States, China will completely dominate sectors such as AI, electric vehicles, and humanoid robotics.

These remarks were made during a three-hour podcast interview with Dwarkesh Petal, where Musk discussed various topics, including AI, manufacturing, humanoid robots, and the competitive landscape of technology between the United States and China.

According to Musk, global AI chip production is experiencing exponential growth, yet the earth's energy generation and heat dissipation are struggling to keep pace. This growing disconnect is making it increasingly difficult to meet the energy demands of large AI computing clusters, leading Musk to predict that deployment of massive AI computing capacity in space might become the most cost-effective solution within the next three years.

Highlighting China's structural advantages in energy and manufacturing, Musk remarked on the exceptionally low costs at which the country produces solar panels and noted that it possesses the largest energy production capacity in the world. Earlier this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he stated that China could potentially generate half of the annual electrical output of the United States solely through solar energy.

Musk further characterized China as a 'top-tier manufacturing power,' noting its advanced manufacturing capabilities, with only a few areas where it might be lacking. He pointed out that China processes approximately twice as much ore as the rest of the world combined, giving it a competitive edge.

With a population that is around four times that of the United States and a strong work ethic, Musk commented that while the U.S. may struggle on the human front, it might have a chance in the realm of robotics.

Musk praised the strategic importance of humanoid robots in manufacturing processes, especially in continuous industrial operations that run 24/7. He asserted that the most useful robots initially would be those operational around the clock, as they would be able to work constantly.

He used electricity production as an economic indicator, predicting that China could exceed the electrical production of the United States by three times, indicating that its industrial capacity is thus approximately three times greater.

Musk asserted that every product will contain elements sourced in China due to its refined capabilities, highlighting that the country performs double the refinement work compared to the rest of the world. He reinforced that China plays a major role in the production chain, right through to the finished products like vehicles.

In a statement to the Global Times, Tesla announced plans to allocate over 20 billion dollars in 2026 towards investments in AI computing capabilities, robot factories, the Cybercab program, as well as energy storage and charging infrastructure.

Tesla's Vice President, Tao Lin, noted that the $20 billion budget covers Tesla's global markets. While specific plans for China have not been disclosed, the strategic direction is clear: to increase investments in AI software and hardware, along with energy-related technologies. Tesla has also established a localized training center in China focused on optimizing local systems and enhancing the intelligent driving capabilities of Tesla's offerings.